Scenario analysis of automated sorting centers (ASCs) network development options for Russian Post. The network consisted of 45 000 delivery points, up to 15 ASCc. 50 scenarios of ASCs network development were evaluated with simulation model.
Period: October 2011 – February 2012
Industry: Logistic and Transportation
Client / Partner: Russian Post / Ernst & Young
Project objective
Scenario analysis of automated sorting centers (ASCs) network development options
The main stages of work and characteristics of the model
- Research postal item processing and transportation
- Generation of ASCs network development options for simulation-based scenario analysis in cooperation with the clients team
- The simulation model concept development for automobile transport distribution
- Development of the simulation model
- Scenario analysis (experimenting with simulation model) and preparation of the report about scenario analysis results
- Development of the simulation model user guide
Model input data
- Forecast of postal items numbers within the period of ASCs development
- Logistic network topology (45000 delivery points, all Russian territory, 50 options of ASC locations)
- Transport routes features (speed of transport, modality, etc.)
- Methods of calculation of operational indicators
The main structural elements of the model
- Input database with user interface for data input and modification
- Simulation model with interactive presentation
- Accelerated simulation model for scenarios batch launch
- Report aggregation module that allows to form the reports about scenario analysis results
Model output data
- Operational indicators of the company (compliance with delivery deadlines)
- Transport and sorting equipment capacity utilization
Project result
- Business plan of ASC Russian Post network is developed using the simulation model
- The model allowed to calculate the forecast of delivery deadlines changes during ASC development period
- The simulation model is passed to the client for use as an analytical tool for strategic planning